Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.315541 23.560617 24.871037 26.358685 28.007701 29.787799 31.865823
2026-01-04 20.611229 22.331594 24.227798 26.492781 29.151909 32.210300 36.048011
2026-01-11 19.705695 21.710563 23.988447 26.805235 30.249462 34.401069 39.912263
2026-01-18 18.843196 21.029253 23.572424 26.805503 30.893227 36.021158 43.177323
2026-01-25 17.955022 20.233048 22.931235 26.435718 30.985702 36.882441 45.466932
2026-02-01 17.177976 19.513138 22.320714 26.034093 30.966966 37.546602 47.502004
2026-02-08 16.458418 18.819354 21.693301 25.552791 30.780812 37.930993 49.129849
2026-02-15 15.964953 18.377359 21.351260 25.408209 31.017212 38.896496 51.714583
2026-02-22 15.748813 18.267988 21.419121 25.797638 32.000442 41.002593 56.363966
2026-03-01 15.282186 17.816600 21.017631 25.520792 32.007078 41.636977 58.643973
2026-03-08 14.666717 17.150700 20.306260 24.778664 31.286203 41.084213 58.767417
2026-03-15 14.267989 16.751897 19.931992 24.484803 31.201453 41.512265 60.698202
2026-03-22 14.161203 16.742604 20.092353 24.973448 32.353351 44.087878 67.210629
2026-03-29 13.948443 16.585237 20.045037 25.161230 33.059313 46.007657 72.881470
2026-04-05 13.780745 16.478769 20.058340 25.430906 33.903839 48.247936 79.758362
2026-04-12 13.535264 16.257503 19.901010 25.434938 34.314977 49.754139 85.374345
2026-04-19 13.193550 15.894114 19.529833 25.096287 34.134487 50.140901 88.385282
2026-04-26 12.861814 15.534800 19.151960 24.729310 33.880931 50.360246 91.032189
2026-05-03 12.524073 15.158356 18.737882 24.288753 33.474984 50.244152 92.773239
2026-05-10 12.298455 14.930650 18.529061 24.156334 33.587920 51.162836 97.649967
2026-05-17 12.231661 14.920530 18.631586 24.512922 34.573208 53.962141 109.070216
2026-05-24 11.989092 14.657828 18.357867 24.259457 34.454875 54.434988 113.369666
2026-05-31 11.632701 14.227887 17.828887 23.579142 33.530923 53.092956 111.192150